Germany: A World Leader in the Migration to a Green Economy

GERMANY:  A WORLD LEADER IN THE MIGRATION TO A GREEN ECONOMY

The New Economic Paradigm: Impressive Emissions Reductions and Economic Performance

When Prime Minister Harper is challenged on his environmental record, one of his standard replies is that between economic development and sustainable development, he must give priority to the economy.   While it suits Harper's ideological agenda to imply that economic and environmental objectives are opposing forces, the facts suggest otherwise.  Indeed, as indicated in my previous Common Sense Canadian articles, the clean technology sectors are among the world's fastest growing and highest job creation sectors of our times.  Unfortunately, each year of the Conservative rule represents a rapidly expanding green jobs gap between Canada and its competitors.

Among nation-specific models that disprove the Harper economic paradigm to the effect that a natural resources based economy is the best vehicle for prosperity, Germany is a case in point.  That is, Germany, while rising to become one of the globe's strongest national economies, reduced its emissions 25% below 1990 levels by 2012 thus exceeding its Kyoto Protocol commitment to reduce its emissions by 21% below 1990 levels for the 2008 to 2012 period.  This is an especially remarkable achievement in light of the economic troubles in much of Europe and in the world at-large.

Components of the German Success Story

This German success story is a result of numerous factors, one might say a holistic approach.

One of the important pillars of this success story is the 2001 German Renewable Energy Act, which introduced the concept of a Feed-in-tariff (FIT) and right to connect (RTC) formula to the world, a concept entailing 1) the paying of a technology-specific guaranteed premium remuneration above market rates for renewable energy sources over a specified time period, combined with 2) a requirement that all sources of renewable energy production within a given utility's region must be connected to, and given priority within, the network.  

This concept makes sense economically in that all new sources of energy cost more than existing sources that were developed some time ago and may be fully paid for.  Over time, the plan calls for a reduction of FIT rates for new renewable power entries on the grid, thus providing incentives for manufactures to invest in innovation to lower costs.

Testimony to the success of the formula is the fact that the German model has since been emulated by 19 of the 27 EU states and 40 jurisdictions around the globe, including China.  Up until recently, Ontario offered such a system.

The success synergies resulting from the aforementioned FIT/RTC model and the rapid take up of renewables also comprise attractive terms of engagement for community and individual ownership of renewable energy production.  To this effect, in 2013, 50% of the entire Germany production of renewables is owned by individuals, communities and cooperatives with the sources ranging from home roof top solar panels to wind power and biogas production on agricultural land.   With regard to the latter point, farmers account for 11% of total German renewables production. http://www.ilsr.org/half-germanys-53000-megawatts-renewable-energy-locally-owned/

In effect, the individual homeowner take-up has been so successful than a March 2013 survey showed that 60% of homeowners are considering adding rooftop solar for heating or electricity generation. 

An equally significant symptom of success, in May 2013, a €50m ($66.5M) program was introduced for power-storage systems for owners of small and medium-sized PV solar installations in order to kick-start the storage sector and take pressure off grids.  This became necessary because grids are increasingly struggling with rising amounts of home-made renewable energy flooding the system at midday, creating an imbalance in supply and demand and having a distorting effect on the market.

As for the role of the utilities in the clean energy high local ownership landscape, only 13.5% of the nation's renewable power is produced by Germany's 4 major utilities and regional and municipal utilities.

Few countries have outdone Germany on this score other than Denmark where 83% of the renewable power sources are owned by individuals and communities.

Perhaps the most significant bottom line pointing to the success of the German holistic approach is the job numbers, once more demonstrating that the Harper economic paradigm is dated.  In 2011, there were 372,000 working in the nation's clean energy sectors and the projections are such that these numbers are expected to be in the 400,000 to 500,000 range by 2020.

Fukushima and Energiewende (The Energy Transition): Accelerating the Migration to Renewables

A major acceleration to the German migration to a green economy occurred by way of the German response to the Fukushima melt down in 2011, -- the German Energiewende (the energy transition) --which 1) saw 8 of its oldest nuclear power plants shut down immediately after the disaster struck and 2) includes plans for the shutting down of the remaining 9 plants by 2022.

Contributing to the assessment of options to compensate for these shutdowns, a BEW study concluded that onshore wind could replace all nuclear plants with backup from other renewable sources.

 

Accordingly, among other things, the new Energiewende package comprised 1) an increase in the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) -- a price add on --  for offshore wind 2) a commitment from kfw, the state development bank, for $7.2B of investments in offshore wind development and 3) a plan to cut electricity consumption by 10% by 2020.

 

To be eligible for the premium for offshore wind, originally Energiewende projects were to be completed by 2017, but given delays in the construction of the underwater offshore TenneT cable and 30 year project lifecycles, the offshore wind industry's lobbying efforts were rewarded by the newly re-elected Merkel-led government with a November 2013 decision to extend the completion date requirement to the end of 2019.

On longer term Energiewende objectives, the 2050 goal is ambitious, calling for a reduction of emissions by 80% with 80% of its electricity derived from renewable sources by then.  Not bad considering that only 23% of the nation's electricity was attributable to renewables in 2012.  Interim renewable electricity targets are set at 35% by 2020 and 50% by 2030. 

With there being a strong renewables lobby in the country -- unlike Canada where the fossil fuel industry plays a dominant role among energy lobbies -- German renewables industry is exercising its clout to suggest a 47% renewables target for 2020.

In this regard, the results of the September 2013 German federal elections may in fact mean that the interim goals could become more stringent because 1) at the time of the writing of this article in November 2013, Merkel Christian Democrats (CDU) were still in negotiations with the Social Democrats (SPD) regarding the formation of a coalition government and 2) the SPD had campaigned for a 40-45% target for renewable electricity sources by 2020 and 75% for 2030. The SPD campaign also included a 25% target by 2020 for co-generation, the combining of heat and power generation.

Whatever the final outcome of the CDU-SPD negotiations, it is clear that the Energiewende will be high on the political agenda because it was a component of the Merkel election platform.

 

Notwithstanding the impressive speed of the energy transition away from nuclear, for much of the German public, the abandoning of nuclear power is not going fast enough.  A March 2013 poll by  Infratest Dimap showed that 57% of Germans believe the shift away from nuclear is going too slowly while only 30% feel it’s advancing too fast.

This same poll also illustrated another big difference between the energy and climate change debates in Germany versus Canada.  The poll had 39% indicating that environmental protection should be among the main criteria for political decisions.

Lastly, consistent with the Energiewende goals, Germany will be building 4400km of new transmission lines by 2022, the year of the shutdown of all of the remaining nuclear plants.  This includes connecting offshore wind resources in the North and Baltic Seas.

Clean Energy versus Fossil Fuels for Electrical Power: The Economics

Contrary to appearances, the premium rate for renewables does not involve subsidies as the costs are passed on to consumers.  As one would expect, the German fossil fuel industry has complained that the surcharge to consumers for renewables gives renewables an unfair competitive advantage in the marketplace.

 

But a Greenpeace study showed that the exact opposite is true.  Specifically while renewables received €17B ($22.7B) in aid via the surcharge in 2012, the fossil and nuclear sectors actually represented a staggering €40B ($54B) in hidden costs.  The hidden costs are composed of direct state aid and tax breaks as well as external damage costs associated with climate change impacts and costs resulting from nuclear accidents– all of which are borne by taxpayers. But -- unlike the renewables surcharge-- these costs don’t appear on electricity bills and aren’t transparent.   If these hidden costs were slapped on electricity bills, consumers would be burdened with a surcharge of €0.102/kWh (14₵/kWh). 

 Based on these calculations, currently wind solar and hydro are the cheapest sources of electricity supply.  According to a Nov 2013 Fraunhofer ISE study, with innovation driving down production costs, actual production costs for wind are now lower than coal and gas.  Solar production costs are still higher than fossil sources but the ratio is expected to favour solar by 2030.

More generally, the impact of the German energy model on the German electricity energy mix has been that of pushing of gas-fired plants out of the market, and the lowering of load factors for both coal and gas-fired plants, expected to decline to 33% by 2015.

Taking into account the popularity of the German model throughout Europe and the influence of the European cap and trade scheme, The European Trading System (ETS)(cap and trade system), E.ON, one of Germany's largest utilities, indicated it may close 11 GW of fossil fuel capacity across Europe by 2015.  In July 2013, EnBW another German utility announced plans to mothball 668 MW of fossil fuel production involving 4 power facilities.

Germany; the European Cap and Trade Experience; and Lessons for Canada

Germany's achievements mean that Germany will one of the most, if not the most, important contributor to achieving the EU-wide aggregated goal for a 20% reduction in GHG's by 2020.   (Note, to achieve the EU goal, member states have also taken on nation-specific targets related to national wealth for GHGs not covered by the EU ETS such as the housing, agriculture, waste and transport sectors, sectors representing 60% of total EU emissions.)

Particularly worthy of attention with regard to the potential that Canada may adopt cap and trade model at some future date concerns the ETS 1) being effective in putting EU nations on track for meeting their respective Kyoto targets and 2) having more recently become a less influential vector because of an excess of carbon credits on the market that drove down the price of carbon.   Indeed the price of carbon declined from €13.09/tonne in 2010 to a new record low of €2.63/tonne in April 2013.

The European Commission has recommended backloading 900 credits, that is temporarily removing them from the market.  In April 2013 the European Parliament narrowly voted against backloading but in a second vote on the matter, in ­­­­July 2013, the Parliament approved the measure.  The measure now must be ratified by the European Energy Ministers.

For Germany's part, the backloading details will largely be a funtion of the outcome of the CDU and SPD negotiations on a coalition government. The CDU wants backloading to be an integral part of a long term plan, while the SPD wants a onetime one-of solution.

Accordingly, the lesson for Canada here is that any cap and trade system that Canada sets up should include a mechanism for annual reviews of the supply and demand for emission credits to ensure no oversupply occurs that can drive down the price of credits. 

As well, for select sectors that may have difficulty in complying with Canada's cap and trade scheme,  a loan guarantee program, maximum one-loan/firm, may be in order.­­­­­­­­­­­ 

QUÉBEC UNDER A PQ GOVERNMENT: WHAT'S NOT EVIDENT IN THE ENGLISH CANADA MEDIA

The information contained in this article is common knowledge for francophone Québec but is rarely available in English and as such virtually unknown to English Canada.  This leads to many misunderstandings, often referred to as the two solitudes.

La Charte des valeurs: A Cocktail Which Appeals to Many Progressives and Feminists as well as Regressives, but for Different Reasons

Contrary to what many in English Canada may think, the debate in Quebec about La Charte des valeurs (Charter of Values) represents a cocktail of factors.

One of the main components of the cocktail has to do with the Québec dark years known as "la grande noirceur",  the years during which the Québec francophone community lived under draconian Catholic Church rule, a Church which censured music and films, sent women who had sexual relations prior marriage into the streets, and abducted children born outside marriage to be put in Church orphanages.  One might say that these dark years are now looked upon by the majority of Québécois as being as reprehensible as residential schools are for members of Canada's First Nations.

Accordingly, the sentiment to separate religion from the state is a several notches stronger in Quebec than in the rest of Canada.

Add to these elements of the cocktail, that, for women, these dark years included the classification of woman in a male controlled inferior zone.  Consequently, many in the feminist movement want to make sure that religious symbols of inferiorization, worn on one's body or otherwise, are banned from the public sector.

Yet another component of the cocktail is the Duplessis years, 1936-1039 and 1944-1959, the years during which late Premier Duplessis had a pact with the Catholic Church to control the people.  Under the pact, the Church would run the Catholic schools, the hospitals and civil society in general, as long as the Catholic Church kept the people docile under the Duplessis economic development formula entailing cheap labour and union/communist busting features.  In honour of this pact, in 1936 Premier Duplessis had a crucifix placed over the Speaker's chair in the National Assembly.

Pauline Marois Calculated Targeting of Markets, Similar to the Harper Model: The December 2013 Election Plan that Failed

Pauline Marois, like Stephen Harper, wants to be in full control and consequently detests minority governments -- her government is a minority government.  But because her first year in power has been one of a seemingly endless series of incoherent improvisations, she had lost control of public opinion. -- In that sense, her government is not all that different than the Charest Liberal government that preceded the PQ.

While she had promised she would eliminate the heath tax during her election campaign, her first budget included a health tax of $200 for those earning $42,000 to $100,000.  Another election promise entailed addressing the absurdly low royalties and taxes paid by Quebec's mining industry, but once in power she backed down to the industry lobby.  She had promised to migrate Quebec to a green economy but so far she seems okay with the two pipeline proposals to transport tar sands oil into, and crossing over, Quebec, and is not ruling out exploiting potential local oil reserves.

All this added up to widespread dissatisfaction with the Marois government and poor prospects for pursuing a majority government.  This is where La Charte comes in.

In early Fall 2013, figuring her government could position the PQ for a majority government by creating a perceived crisis among québécois to the effect Quebec had an epidemic of new religious immigrants who were imposing religious accommodations on the majority population, Pauline Marois introduced the Charte.   

This Fall 2013 game plan entailed calling an election for December 2013, while La Charte was a hot topic, and cut into the Québec homogenous outlying regions' right wing nationalist vote -- a game plan to foster a migration of Coalition pour l'avenir du Québec (CAQ) vote over to the PQ.   That made "political sense" in that CAQ support is declining.

This election game plan also counted on the feminist movement.  Accordingly, as did Harper when he placed "correct thinking" people on the Board of Rights and Democracy, Marois appointed 4 new "correct thinking" members to the Conseil du statut de la femme (Council on the Status of Women).  But it backfired when the President of the Conseil, Julie Miville-Dechêne, publicly denounced this political interference.  The reality is that the woman's movement in Québec is divided on the issue.

Montreal Municipal Elections: November 3, 2013

During this same Fall 2013 period, all four of the main candidates for Mayor of Montreal  for the November 3, 2013 elections came out against the Charte. 

On November 3, Denis Coderre, former federal Liberal Cabinet minister, the very in the box unimaginative candidate for Mayor with a very sparse and vague platform - he actually thinks more parking spaces downtown is a solution for Montreal, Canada's most congested city- became the city's new Mayor with 32% of the vote.  On La Charte, Coderre had said in one of the election debates that he would contest La Charte in the courts if it included the ban on religious symbols in the public sector.

For those in BC, it may be also interesting to note that innovative visionary candidate for Mayor, Richard Bergeron of Projet Montréal, often referred to Vancouver as a model for urban densification and a green city.  He came in second with 25.6%.

  

Others Adding their Voices Against La Charte: Provincial Election Bluff Called Off

Concurrent with the municipal election campaigning, others condemning the La Charte elements pertaining to the wearing of religious symbols were Quebec's hospitals' association, universities, a teachers' union, a private daycare centres' association and many more. 

Adding his voice to this opposition, the President of La Commission des droits de la personne et des droits de la jeunesse  (human rights and youth rights commission), Jacques Frémont, went public to say La Charte would not pass the test of either the Quebec Charter of Rights or the Canadian Charter of Rights in the event of a legal challenge.   Either the PQ would have to modify the proposed Charte or revert to the "Notwithstanding clause."

In effect, it has become very clear that it would be impossible to apply La Charte in the Montreal Statistics Canada census area, which attracts 87% of Québec immigrants and which represents over 45% of the population of Québec.

But all these obstacles did not deter the PQ. 

Rather, the factor that changed Pauline Marois's mind about going into a December 2013 election with the highly emotional Charte as a wedge issue, was the fact that the polls did not deliver the hoped for support. As a result, as of October 27, 2013, the December 2013 election hype has been called off.

Swinging Further to the Right

Cultivating the right nationalist vote for La Charte, is not, unfortunately an isolated incident.

Shortly after coming into power, the Marois government appointed Pierre Karl Péladeau -- controlling shareholder of Quebecor and The Sun Media and well-known for his support of right wing causes -- to sit on the Board of Hydro-Québec.  Péladeau has since attended at least two Marois Cabinet meetings.

His spouse, Julie Snyder, host of the popular Star Académie (Québec equivalent to American Idol), is one of the members of the Janette movement, a women's movement in support of La Charte.  Julie Snyder is also involved in the development of a television production on a favourable portrait of Pauline Marois to be aired on TVA, a TV network owned by the Pierre Karl Péladeau media empire.

Which brings us back to what Pauline Marois said when she became the leader of the PQ.  At the time she said she would modernize social democracy.  She never explained what she meant, but after a year in power, it is becoming clearer as to what she had in mind -- go after the right wing nationalist vote to put sovereignty over the top.  Fortunately for Canada, the game plan is not working.

China: World's Largest Clean Tech Market + Its Chaotic Migration to a Green Economy

CHINA, THE WORLD'S LARGEST ENERGY CONSUMER AND CLEAN TECHNOLOGY MARKET:

CHINA'S CHAOTIC FAST FORWARD MIGRATION TO A GREEN ECONOMY

For most, when one talks of China  and its environmental and energy challenges, one tends to paint a very bleak picture.  This perception is well-founded in that China 1) displaced the US as the world's largest energy consumer as of 2009 -- doubling its energy consumption between 2000 and 2009 --- 2) represents the world's  highest pollution levels with 16 of the top 20 most polluted cities in the world being in China and 3) now has total annual vehicle sales higher than that of the US.  Add to the picture considerations to the effect that approximately 62% of China's current electrical power generation is derived from thermal, mainly coal-fired, generating plants and much of China's industrial pollution emanates from plants with dated technologies.

The flip side to this gloomy portrait, is that China is actively engaged in a chaotic migration to a green economy.  Indeed, in 2012, China had the highest level of investments in clean energy, totalling $67.7B, up 20% from 2011 due to a solar sector surge.  The US was in a distant second place with $42.4B in clean energy investments in 2012.

With these sharp contradictions, one might be tempted to conclude that China is schizophrenic on environmental issues. However, that would be unfair because the trends are shifting in favour of clean technologies supported with massive investments by the national government.

On massive government funding for clean technologies, sustainable development related R &D, energy efficiency and emissions and pollution control, China committed $223B in 2009 to initiatives in these areas and in August 2012, China announced a new plan for $372B up to the year 2015.  http://www.ibtimes.com/china-spend-372-billion-reduce-pollution-encourage-energy-efficiency-759575

Concurrent with the aforementioned investments, under the 2009 China Renewable Energy Law, China introduced 1) a Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) for renewables (fixed price paid above market prices for all renewable energy sources) and 2) Right-to-Connect obligations that require all grid operators buy all of the renewable energy produced in their respective regions.  (Note, the FIT and Right to Connect formula was conceived in Germany and has since been copied by 40 governments around the world, including Ontario, until that province abandoned the model in response to a WTO ruling over Ontario content provisions.)

Complementing the FIT and right to connect programs, in 2012, China began to implement a quota system for provinces and cities for the amount of their energy that must come from renewable sources.

Against this backdrop, China has become the world's fastest growing wind energy market. With 13.2 GW of new wind power capacity added in 2012,  the total wind installed capacity reached 75.6 GW by the end of 2012.  (To put this in a relative perspective, Quebec's current total installed electricity production capacity, including Churchill Falls, is 44 GW.) Projections are for over 16 GW of new installations in 2013 and 17 GW and 18 GW for 2014 and 2015 respectively.  China's unofficial target is 200 GW by 2020 but that may be an underestimate. 

In terms of jobs in the wind energy sector, the projection is that from the 150,000 jobs in China's wind sector in 2009, the numbers will rise to 500,000 jobs by 2020.

Unfortunately, in its haste to advance its wind and solar energy sectors -- from the development of clean energy manufacturing capacity to the construction of wind and solar farms -- China had "forgot" to invest in corresponding increases in electricity transmission capacity.  Consequently, Chinese electrical grids are not in place to handle all of its new renewable energy production capacity -- 20% of wind production capacity was not connected in 2012.  To remedy the situation, China will build 19 new ultra high voltage lines, but the first two lines will not be ready until 2014.  One of these lines will be 2000km long.

In the interim, with the help of generous state financing from the Chinese Development Bank and other sources, China dumped its manufacturing surplus production of clean energy technologies on global markets.

The US has since responded to China's dumping by imposing steep tariffs on China's clean technologies - up to 250% on some Chinese solar products and up to 26% on Chinese wind turbine towers.

With respect to tariffs and Europe, following sabre rattling to the tune of an 11.8% introductory offer solar products tariff on Chinese imports effective June 6, 2013, on August 6, 2013 the EU decided not to impose provisional tariffs averaging 47% that were supposed to come into effect that same day, on Aug 6, 2013. That is, a preliminary truce was worked out on 1) prices and 2) a maximum export volume. Notwithstanding this preliminary agreement, Europe is keeping its options open for new tariff decisions at a later time.

Regrettably, up until the aforementioned trade wars, China's PV solar manufacturing sector was almost entirely dedicated to global markets -- with hardly any domestic market to speak of -- going from 1% of the global market in 2004 to 50% by 2012, that is, up to when US and European tariffs eliminated China's price advantage. The US and EU tariffs having brought China back to earth, China is now more focused on internal solutions to its temporary surplus in solar manufacturing capacity.

 

One these internal solutions comes in the form of PV solar energy targets to install 10 GW/year in the 2013-15 period --quite a sharp increase from the total installed PV solar capacity at the end of 2012 at 5 GW. To encourage the private sector to get into the act -- 40% of PV projects are represented by private developers -- the Chinese government is offering 50% tax breaks for utility scale projects for that period.  As a result, when the figures are in for the year 2013, China will likely be the world's largest solar market. 

What this will mean in terms of growth jobs in China's solar sector may not be known for a while, but it is worth noting that prior to new policies and targets mentioned above, there were 300,000 jobs in the PV solar sector in 2011.  As well, there were another 800,000 employed in China's solar heating and cooling sector in that same year.

But since domestic market growth by itself would still not be sufficient to address the solar manufacturing overcapacity and declining overseas demand, China has since introduced tax breaks and other measures to encourage Chinese solar manufacturing sector restructuring.  Further on restructuring, with the cap on exports to Europe, Europe being the world's largest solar market, China has blocked access of its small solar firms to European markets.

Where does all this lead? Well the projections of BNEF are such that 50% of China's electricity would come from wind and solar energy by 2030, roughly equal to that of coal.  Further on coal, in the recent Common Sense Canadian article on the end of coal, it suggested that coal production in China will peak in 2015.  http://commonsensecanadian.ca/end-coal/ This may suggest that the BNEF projections are too conservative.­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­

An indicator that the clean energy projections may be too conservative or, at least, not tell the whole story, is China's recognition that overarching policies are essential to bring all sectors of the economy on side.  More precisely, in May 2013, China's National Development and Reform Commission began a process to explore cap and trade options with the objective of having a scheme come into effect in 2016.  The review of this option began in June 2013 with the first of seven pilot carbon trading schemes in Shenzhen.  In line with these objectives, the plan call for strict  emissions, pollution and energy efficiency standards for the industrial sectors by 2016, backed by stiff penalties for non-compliance.  To assist industry to achieve compliance, loans would be made available to firms to invest in clean technologies.  According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), if the power sector is faced with a price of carbon, GHG's in China would peak around 2023.

As to why Shenzhen was chosen for China's first cap and trade pilot, it may well be because that city's green leadership, particularly in the area of clean transportation alternatives.  To this effect, the city of Shenzhen has established a target to have 1) more than 3000 electric taxis and 2) 5000 hybrid and 1000 electric urban transit buses around by 2015.  In addition, by 2015, the city will ban all vehicles that fail to meet in advanced emission standards.  Not bad for the city that ranks second to Beijing as having the most vehicles in mainland China. 

Moreover the audacity of city of Shenzhen complements that of the Warren Buffet-backed BYD of Shenzhen which 1) has become a world leader in all electric buses; 2) will introduce its e-buses to Canada through pilot projects with the Société de transport de l'Outaouais (STO in the Gatineau area) and Société de transport de Montréal (STM); 2) has introduced its e-buses in a pilot in Frankfurt Germany; 3) built an e-bus and electric car manufacturing plant Sofia, Bulgaria which began operations in February 2013; and 4) is building an e-bus and an Iron-Phosphate energy module (large-scale battery) manufacturing facility in California that will be operational in late 2013. http://www.byd.com/na/

Meanwhile, back in Canada, Stephen Harper continues to present economic development and sustainable development as two opposing policy paths. This is true only as long as all of Canada's economic eggs are in the old economy and one turns a blind eye as to what's happening by way of economic paradigm shifts in China, Europe and the US.  Only in Canada, pity!

Will Dubitsky, Oct 10, 2013

The Coalition: A Pan-Canadian Coalition on Problematic Boats, Environmental Protection and a New Legislative Framework

If you care about our lakes and rivers, some of Canada's most valued treasures, then this article is likely to be of interest of you.

All across Canada, Canadian communities, mostly small, face great difficulties in trying to establish regulations regarding the protection of navigable waters environments, that is, waters which fall under federal regulatory jurisdiction - The Canadian Shipping Act, in particular.   Not only are these communities paralysed in efforts to address the growing numbers of motorized boats on waterways, but they also find themselves helpless to deal with the proliferation of "Hummer" type boats, or wake boats, with their 330HP to 550 HP and their destructive and high and powerful waves that generate shoreline erosion, damage docks,  make non-motorized boating unpleasant and disturb shoreline enjoyment.

Unfortunately, The Canadian Shipping Act is an inefficient tool to address the aforementioned challenges because the Act, which dates back to the early years of Canada, was not conceived to protect the environment.  More precisely, the prime purpose of the Act is to protect the rights of navigators, and minimize the barriers to navigation. 

But the worst part about this Act is that it makes it exceptionally difficult for a local government to obtain federal approval for a new regulatory proposal -- up to 5 years from the time a request is made to the moment when a proposal may be approved -- and the guidelines on the Act make it abundantly clear that the federal government seeks non-regulatory solutions by way of voluntary codes of conduct. 

The aforementioned latter point is the source of eternal conflicts within communities in that a community must reach nearly 100% voluntary adherence to a proposed code of conduct.  Surveys and referendums are not regarded by Transport Canada as a basis for a community to formulate a new regulatory proposal.

Consequently, most communities are not able to follow through to achieve federal regulatory approval.  

It is against this legislative backdrop that the matter of the proliferation of wake boats on Canadian waterways has contributed to community dialogues of the deaf over unresolvable conflicts. 

As alluded to in the introduction to this article, wake boats are not at all like conventional motor boats. The combination of 1) horsepower ranges similar to those offered for Volvo tractor-trailer trucks and 2) ballasts ranging from 1500 to 2000 lbs, produce high and powerful waves, even at modest speeds.  As if this is not enough, the turbidity caused by wake boats can go down to a depth of 9 metres and suspend churned up sediments for up to 24 hours after the wake boat has passed.  In turn, the cocktails of floating sediments stemming from shoreline erosion and turbidity contribute to green and blue algae.

As for fuel consumption, there aren't any third independent party ratings available.  However, comments posted on the Net offer figures ranging from 20 litres to 70 litres for one hour's use.  So much for climate change!!!!!

To address the increasing environmental challenges posed by powerful boats, the Canadian Coalition on problematic boats, otherwise known as The Coalition, was officially created on September 1st in a small Quebec community, St-Faustin-Lac-Carré, Québec.

In effect, the Coalition wishes to see modifications of two pieces of legislation, the Canadian Fisheries Act and the Canadian Shipping Act. 

With regard to The Fisheries Act, prior to the Harper administration's changes to this Act, the Act was a very effective tool to protect marine life habitats.  But in response to a request from the pipeline industry, the Conservatives considerably weakened the protection of the marine habitat.

Accordingly, The Coalition objectives entail the modification of both the Canadian Shipping Act and the Canadian Fisheries Act, plus the linking of the two Acts, in order to make it possible to impose restrictions on certain types of boats based on impacts on the marine environment and community decisions.  Clear national environmental criteria and local government authorities would be the pillars of the new legislative framework and the concept of voluntary codes of conduct would be abolished.

Of course, to be politically realistic, The Coalition does not have any hopes with the current government. In this regard, it proposes an interregional and interprovincial Coalition to formulate innovative legislative recommendations for the next federal government, in 2015.

As for the rationale for the interregional and interprovincial approach, it is a reflection of the fact that a small community acting on its own cannot hope to have sufficient influence to request a change to two Acts and the linking of the two.  By contrast, a pan-Canadian Coalition would be hard for any future government to ignore.

In brief, a pan-Canadian Coalition with a two year time line is both politically and logistically sound.

An online signature document and a website to provide Coalition info and updates will be set up shortly.

In the interim, I invite citizens' associations, individuals, municipal councillors, regional governments and others to write to me about their interest at willdubitsky@yahoo.ca.

Coalition + Wakeboats: Pétition + Signatures

Coalition sur les modifications de l'encadrement législatif fédéral gouvernant la navigation:

les bateaux qui ont des impacts sur l'environnement tel que les wakeboats.

Étant donné que certains types des bateaux ont des impacts destructifs sur l'environnement des lacs et rivières, tel que l'impact des wakeboats sur l'érosion des bords riverains

Étant donné que les lois fédéraux qui encadrent les eaux navigables rendent difficiles ou presque impossible d'imposer des restrictions sur certains types de bateaux quant à leur impact sur l'environnement et la tranquillité des riverains

Étant donné que le gouvernement fédéral actuel n'est pas suffisamment soucieux de l'environnement pour être réceptif aux changements de lois et règlements de navigation nécessaire pour de protéger l'environnement de nos lacs et rivières

Étant donné qu'une seul municipalité ne pourrait avoir assez d'influence pour agir seule pour changer l'encadrement législatif gouvernant les eaux navigables

Nous les signataires ci-dessous voulons participer dans une coalition inter-municipale, interrégional et interprovincial - un front commun - tel que la prochaine gouvernement fédéral, après l'élection du 2015,  ne pourrait ignorer nos propositions pour un nouvelle encadrement législatif innovateur et efficace qui nous donnerions des outils d’imposer des restrictions sur certains types de bateaux au nom de la protection de l'environnement et de la tranquillité des environs.

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Coaliton and Wakeboats: Meeting @10:00AM, Sept 1, 2013 @St-Faustin-LacCarré

Hello:

The purpose of the message is to invite you a first meeting concerning 1) the Coalition on the modification of the federal legislative framework for navigation on our waterways and 2) boats having significant environmental impacts as is the case with wakeboats.  This meeting will take place at 10:00AM, September 1st at the Parc Écotouristique, Collège Vanier, à  737, rue de la Pisciculture, St-Faustin-Lac Carré (the former fish hatchery site).

In brief, the Coalition's objective is to form an inter-municipal, inter-regional and inter-provincial group to develop innovative legislative recommendations between now and the next federal election in 2015.  These recommendations would modify the Canadian Shipping Act and the Fisheries Act and link the two Acts in such a way that, in the name of protection the marine habitat, it would be possible to impose restrictions on the use of certain types of boats.

This approach is based on the following:

1) The Canadian Shipping Act in its present form is inefficient and ineffective for regulating certain types of boating activity based environmental reasons since a) the primary purpose of the Act is to protect navigation rights and b) it takes up to 5 years from the moment a municipality makes a request for a new regulation and the approval of the regulation, plus a trail voluntary code of conduct must be attempted during the 5 year period;

2) The current government has removed the component of The Fisheries Act that protects the marine habitat;

3) Given the environmental policies of the current government, it is best to adopt a time line for targeting the next federal government in 2015;

4) A small municipality, community on its own, cannot hope to get the attention of the Government of Canada to modify legislation, especially when the modifications include the linking of two Acts.  Accordingly, the inter-municipal, inter-regional and inter-provincial approach is proposed as it would be difficult to ignore such a group.  To this end, the Coalition will be targeting other communities and stakeholders in Quebec as well as in other provinces.

Your comments and expressions of interests are most welcome.

Here is the links to the signatures document. http://willdubitsky.blogspot.ca/2013/08/coalition-wakeboats-petition-signatures.html

Please confirm your presence by e-mail by August 27th.

Regards.

Will Dubitsky                                                                      Rémi Cloutier

willdubitsky@yahoo.ca                                                    remipcloutier@msn.com

La Coalition et les Wakeboats: Rencontre @10h00, 1er sept @St-Faustin-Lac-Carré

Bonjour,

Le but de ce message est de vous inviter à participer à une première rencontre de la Coalition sur 1) les modifications de l'encadrement législatif gouvernant la navigation sur nos lacs et 2) les bateaux qui ont des impacts significatifs sur l'environnement tel que les wakeboats.  La rencontre aura lieu à 10h00 le premier septembre 2013 au Parc Écotouristique, Collège Vanier, à  737, rue de la Pisciculture, St-Faustin-Lac Carré (L'ancienne site de la Pisciculture).

En bref, la Coalition se donne pour objectif de former un front commun inter-municipal, interrégional et interprovincial, avec un échéancier d'ici la prochaine élection fédérale en 2015, en vue de  faire des recommandations législatives innovatrices. Ces recommandations viseront à modifier la Loi sur la marine marchande et la Loi sur la Pêche et lier ces deux lois pour nous permettre, au nom de la protection de l'habitat marin, d’imposer des restrictions sur certains types de bateaux qui sont nuisibles à l'environnement.

 Cette approche s'inspire des points suivants:

1) La Loi sur la marine marchande telle qu'elle existe actuellement est inefficace pour imposer des restrictions sur les bateaux de plaisance au nom de l'environnement puisque a) sa raison d’être est de protéger les droits des navigateurs, et b) qu'il y a un délai d’environ cinq ans entre la demande d'une municipalité pour un changement de règlements et une approbation, le tout exigeant une période d’essai avec code de conduite pendant cette période;

2) Le gouvernement actuel a éliminé la protection de l’habitat marin contenu anciennement dans la Loi sur la Pêche;

 3) En tenant compte des politiques actuelles, il faut attendre la venue d'un nouveau gouvernement suite aux élections de 2015.

4) Une petite municipalité ne peut par elle-même attirer l'attention du gouvernement fédéral afin de modifier l'encadrement législatif, surtout puisqu’'il s'agit de modifier deux lois.  Par conséquent, nous avons adopté une approche inter-municipale interrégional et interprovincial, une approche de front commun, tel que Le Gouvernement du Canada ne pourrait pas nous ignorer.  À cet effet, nous avons l'intention  d'inclure sous peu d'autres collectivités et intervenants au Québec et dans les autres provinces.

Vos commentaires et/ou  expressions d'intérêts sont les bienvenus.

Voici le lien pour les signatures. http://willdubitsky.blogspot.ca/2013/08/coalition-wakeboats-petition-signatures.html

SVP, confirmez votre présence d'ici le 27 août.

Au plaisir

Will Dubitsky                                                                      Rémi Cloutier
willdubitsky@yahoo.ca                                                    remipcloutier@msn.com

The Critical Role of Public Financial Institutions in the Green Economy

Purpose

Both the Intergovernmental Panel and Climate Change and the International Energy Agency have concluded that public policies, rather than the availability of resources, are among the key determinants for a shift from fossil fuels to clean technology development and deployment.  This article is about the role of public banks as critical agents for change along these lines.

The article begins with a review of public financial institutions around the globe that support the development of the clean technology sectors and concludes with options for Canada to build upon these models from elsewhere.

Public Financial Institutions and the Green Economy

Starting with some of the largest public banks, in July 2013, both the World Bank and the European Investment Bank announced that they will limit to the bare minimum, investments in fossil fuel projects, while shifting the lion's share of their respective energy investments to renewables.

World Bank's Jim Yong Kim – the first scientist to head the institution – said it is impossible to tackle poverty without dealing with the effects of a warmer world.  “We need affordable energy to help end poverty and to build shared prosperity. We will also scale-up efforts to increase renewable energy and improve energy efficiency – according to countries’ needs and opportunities.”

Based on perspectives not very different from that of the World Bank, in July 2013, The European Investment Bank (EIB), in line with the current European Union climate policy, announced it will implement new lending criteria that skew heavily towards renewables and screen out nearly all coal and lignite plants.

The significance of the EIB shift is illustrated by the fact that the EIB invests, lends and leverages $13.2B/year for energy initiatives.  The leveraging of EIB investments in turn fosters private financing, especially important for the capital intensive offshore wind sector.  Many offshore wind projects have benefited from the low cost EIB loans in recent years.
 

Also in Europe, in the UK, the Green Investment Bank, headquartered in Glasgow, was created in 2012 with $3.6B (£3B) in initial capital to carry it through until 2015.  Its mission is to respond to the specific financing challenges of commercial green infrastructure projects by tackling the finance gaps which remain despite the advent of new government policies.  Like the EIB, this mission includes leveraging its investments to bring in other lenders and investors.

To raise additional capital, GIB’s capital base is, and will be, regularly reinforced with pollution permit proceeds and the newly announced carbon tax revenues.  Beginning in the 2014-2015 period, bonds will be issued to raise additional capital.
 

Meanwhile in Germany, the state bank, kfw, is backing offshore wind development to the tune of $7.2B (5B€).

With respect to China, the Chinese Development Bank (CDB), has been a key player in making China the world's largest clean tech player.  In 2012, total investments in renewables was $67.7B, compared to its closest rival, the US, with $56B in investments in that same year.
 

The CDB is a formidable player, especially because the CDB appears to have no limits on the billions of dollars with which to work.  About 2 years ago, the CDB committed a whopping $45B over 5 years to smart grid development and deployment.-- Smart grid platforms are the key to the massive integration of intermittent renewable energy production such as energy from wind and solar sources, by storing surplus energy for redeployment, as required.  

More recently, the CDB provided Goldwind, a state-owned wind turbine manufacturer, with $6B to finance international business development.  Similarly, Ming Yang, a smaller Chinese turbine manufacturer, acquired $5B from the CDB for loans and credit facilities between 2011 and 2015 to prepare its way to enter international markets.
 

The aforementioned orders of magnitude of CDB support for China's clean tech sectors have contributed to accusations of global clean tech dumping, specifically, accusations from the US and the European Union.  Both the US and the EU have responded to the alleged dumping by imposing steep tariffs on imports of clean tech products from China.

By way of contrast, Canada has taken on an opposite type of course of action by being oblivious to the problem of dumping of clean techs by China.  To this effect, the proposed Canada-China trade deal stipulates that there will be no commercial barriers applied to environmental technologies.  Evidently, the Harper regime is prepared to give China what it wants, in order for Canada to sell tar sands oil them. -- Either the Harper administration is unaware of the significance of China's request, it simply does not care or a combination of both!
 

Yet another variant of an innovative public financial institution model for supporting domestic clean tech manufacturing, is that of Brazil's Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social.  As of Jan. 2013, Banco Nacional requires that wind turbine manufacturers source 60% of components in Brazil and produce or assemble in Brazil at least 3 of the 4 main wind technology components-- towers, blades, nacelles and hubs, between now and 2016.  Under the Banco Nacional model, turbine makers have to meet the staggered manufacturing phases established by the bank, which would be stepped up every six months, until 2016.

Turning to the US, there the US Export-Import Bank, which represents 7 US government agencies, was created to finance renewable energy projects in emerging markets and, most important, support the US clean tech industry with its requirement for 30% US content.  India, one of Bank’s 9 key markets, accounted for approximately $7B of the Bank’s worldwide credit exposure as of the end of FY 2011.  Another example of Ex-Im Bank loans was the $1B credit package to fund wind power development in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, in collaboration with the Vietnam Development Bank.
 

Lastly, there is the pension fund green investment model such as that established by Denmark's Dong Energy.-- Dong is 75% owned by the Government of Denmark and is involved in 30% of all offshore wind projects in the world.  Currently, Dong uses Danish pension funds for its financial activity in offshore wind projects in Denmark and partners with the Japanese trading firm Marubeni for equity financing for projects outside Denmark.

The aforementioned government and pension fund financial and policy connections have translated into Dong being a very special kind of energy investor in that 85% of its current portfolio is associated with fossil fuels and 15% renewables, but its mission is to reverse this ratio by 2040.
 

Canada

With the examples of the World Bank, the European Investment Bank China, the UK Green Investment Bank, Germany's kfw, the Chinese Development Bank, the US' Ex-Im Bank and Brazil's Banco nacional, showing the way to the effect that publicly funded investment institutions can play critical roles in assuring a migration to renewables and clean techs, the question to raise in Canada is as follows:  Why can't Canada do similar things via the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) and Export Development Canada?

Indeed these Canadian investment vehicles offer excellent options for the financing the development of Canada's clean tech sectors.  The BDC, like the other institutions mentioned in this article, could leverage its venture capital funds to attract additional support from Canada's private banks and financial cooperatives.  What an excellent way to take on the challenge of reaching US equivalency with regard to 20% of US venture capital activity in 2011 and 2012 represented by investments in the US clean tech sectors.
 

As well, the BDC could take a page from Brazil's Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social and include Canadian content requirements, thus assuring optimal benefits for Canadian economic development and job creation.  It is  conceivable that BDC supported local economic development along these lines could fly under the radar of free trade agreements.

As for an approach for supporting Canadian exports of clean technologies, the models described in this article, in particular the Chinese Development Bank and the US Export-Import Bank, are tough acts to follow since these institutions have billions of dollars to work with. 
 

Nevertheless, the fact that the US Ex-Im Bank brings together 7 US national government organizations, suggests this US model could provide some insights for a Made in Canada model.  For example, if the Canadian International Development Agency  would partner with Export Development Canada, the Government of Canada would be able to support the setting up of clean energy micro-grids in isolated communities without necessitating the prohibitively expensive land infrastructure connections to very distant centralized electricity generation plants.  

On the subject of pension fund models, in the previous section, mention was made of Government of Denmark investing pension funds in Dong Energy, a company 75% owned by the Government of Denmark, and planning to reverse its investment ratios, from the current 85% in fossil fuels to 15% renewables, to the very opposite ratio by 2040.
 

Well, as it happens, contrary to what most may think, there are Canadian precedents for major investments of pension funds in clean tech sectors.  That is, in February 2013, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, the financial arm for Quebec pension funds, invested $757M to purchase half of Dong Energy's 50% share in the world's largest offshore wind energy project, UK's 850 MW London Array.  Just prior to that, in January 2013, the Caisse purchased $500M in shares of 11 Invenergy wind farms in the US and Canada, representing 1500 MW and including 2 wind projects in Canada, one of which is in Quebec.

This raises a second question.  Why can't the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) create a Canadian clean tech portfolio to support optimal Canadian participation in one of the world's largest growth and job creation sectors, the clean tech sector?
 

From my previous dealings with the CPPIB, I know that the CPPIB answer is that their job is to get the maximum return for pensioners and consequently no particular preference is given for Canadian investments.  This is faulty logic for 2 reasons.  First, it is not unusual for investment vehicles to be associated with more than one objective.  Second, and most important, investments in growth sectors in Canada that offer high paying jobs, would bring additional revenues for the CPPIB in the form of greater contributions from both employers and employees -- in addition to the traditional form of returns on investments.   Indeed, from time-to-time, the Caisse has adopted priorities for investments in Quebec with similar motivations.

Conclusion

In conclusion, 1) innovative clean technology roles for the BDC and EDC to support and leverage venture capital and finance exports and 2) the creation of the clean tech portfolio for the CPPIB, could significantly contribute to Canada's catching up to its competitors in the global migration to the high growth and high job creation green economy, all while making good money in the process.  Earnings from completed projects would in turn finance more projects. -- These are opportunities that make good sense for Canada to embrace.

As Jack Layton used to say, "Don't let them tell you it can't be done."

Will Dubitsky, 14 08 13
willdubitsky@gmail.com

Canada Missing Out on Job Creating Green Economy

Introduction

“The real-life global competition over clean energy is growing increasingly intense, as countries around the world sense a huge economic opportunity and the opportunity for cleaner air, water, and a healthier planet.” 

                Former US Energy Secretary Steven Chu May 2012

The current Conservative government wants Canadians to believe that economic development and sustainable development are opposing forces. Consequently, Conservative see their Bills C-38 and C-45, with their draconian anti-environmental components, as justified.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

First, the clean tech sectors are one of the globe's fastest growing and highest job creation sectors.  In 2012, global investments in renewable energy amounted to $268.7B, down from $302.3B in 2011 due to decline in prices and costs; policy uncertainty in the US; and European economic woes. 

China led the way with $67.7B in clean energy investments in 2012, an increase of 20% over the previous year due to a surge in its solar tech sector. The 2012 US, Japan and German investments were $42.2B, $16.3B and $22.8B respectively.

On jobs, the employment to date in these sectors that only a few years ago were nascent sectors are extraordinary.    The global total numbers of jobs in 2011 in clean energy sectors were 5M with China, once again leading the way with 1.6M, followed by Europe with 1.1M and Germany and India with 372,000 and 350,000 respectively.

Canada, as a result of the absence of adequate federal support for being a full participant in this growth misses out on job opportunities by the 1000's every year and the gap between Canada and other developed nations grows yearly.

For a sense of lost employment opportunities for Canadians, the November 2012 report of BlueGreen Canada, an organization that represents unions and environmentalists, indicated that, if the $1.3B in subsidies allocated to the oil and gas sector that currently supports 2,300 jobs in the oil and gas sectors were to be transferred to renewable energy, energy efficiency and public transit, this same amount of money would create 18,000-20,000 jobs in clean energy sectors --- 6 to 8 times more jobs per investment unit.

Behind the aforementioned growth figures, lies the fact that the point of departure for much of this leadership by other nations is government support for innovation.  Specifically, innovation leads to product development and ultimately manufacturing jobs.  However, the Conservative Budget 2013-2014, for the first time in over 40 years, did not assign any financing for clean tech innovation, zero!

To catch up, Canada's requires a highly aggressive climate change action plan that includes substantive fiscal, legislative, program and research components for immediate implementation after the next federal election in 2015.  Put another way, Canada's catching up to the rest of the world should not be principally that of a dependency on importations clean techs, and the sacrificing of the potential for domestic clean tech innovation and manufacturing in Canada.

China

In 2009, China became the largest single energy consumer in the world, putting the US in second place.   But since then, China  has also become the largest clean energy market in the world and a leader in the manufacturing of clean technologies for both domestic and international markets.

While thermal coal-fired generating plants) continued to dominate new installations of electrical power generation, with 50.7 GW in 2012, wind energy came in second with a record 13.2 GW added in 2012.  Total 2012 installed wind capacity was 67.7 GW and the installed projections are for 2020 are 200 GW. (Note, for comparative purposes, Quebec's total electricity capacity is 37 GW not including Churchill).

From the 150,000 jobs in the Chinese wind sector in 2009, the projections for 2020 in this sector are 500,000 jobs.

With respect to solar energy, there are 14 GW in the pipeline.  There were 300,000 who worked in the photovoltaic sector and  800,000 employed in solar heating/cooling in 2011.  Projections  for total installed solar capacity for 2020 are in the order of 50 GW.

 The US

The US is the second largest clean tech market and consequently its energy portrait is changing very quickly.  Wind was the largest new source of electrical power generation in 2012 with 13.1 GW of new installations bringing the total US installed capacity to 60 GW.

This US migration to a green economy was kick-started with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) which pumped $70B into the green economy, including major investments in innovation, during the 2009 to 2011 period, the first half of the first Obama mandate.  Grants, tax credits loans, loan guarantees and investments in research were among the principle mechanisms applied during the 2009-2011 period. Republicans have since put the brakes on this, nevertheless a strong momentum has been established.

There are about 75,000 people working in the US wind sector and over 500 facilities manufacturing turbine components. There were about 119,000 jobs in the US solar in 2012, a 13% increase over 2011 and the biomass and geothermal sectors provided 152,000 and 10,000 jobs respectively in 2011.   When one adds the sum of the various parts of the renewable energy sectors, renewable energy capacity in the US doubled in the 5 years from 2008 to 2012.

Meanwhile in parallel, between 2007 and 2012, oil consumption as a percentage of total US energy consumption,  dropped from 39.3% to 36.7%. As well, the consumption of coal has dropped from 22.5% of total US energy consumption in 2007 to 18.1% in 2012. 

The impacts of the above-mentioned factors combined with investments in energy efficiency by power utilities and improved average fuel consumption of US vehicles, have resulted in a 13% drop in US CO2 emissions from 2007 to 2012.

In his late June 2013 statement on new actions on climate Change, President Obama announced an objective of a reduction of 3B metric tons by 2030.  Unfortunately, the new support proposed for clean energy in his pronouncements were very modest.  

The good news is that President Obama June 2013 announcement stated that the process for approving clean energy production and distribution on federal lands would be accelerated.  This is good because federal lands represent 20% of the US continental land mass.  The bad news is the June 2013 proposals are in effect an accelerated version a Department of the Interior mandate assigned during the ARRA 2009-2011 period.  No details have been provided as to the nature of initiatives to speed up DOI approvals.

Disappointing in the June 2013 action plan, is the lion's share of new funding, $8B, is to be allocated to technologies to reduce fossil fuel emissions, in particular to support carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS).  CCS technologies are prohibitively expensive and consume enormous amounts of energy while only offering modest carbon reduction.

Short time line extensions from the ARRA days are 1) the Investment Tax Credit of 30% on investments, primarily applied for the construction of solar farms and 2) the Production Tax Credit of 2.2 cents/kWh used mainly by wind farm developers.

Europe

In Europe, renewable energy represented 69% of new electrical power capacity installed in 2012 while the oil, coal and nuclear sectors experienced negative growth.  

There were 11.6 GW of wind power installed in 2012 bringing the total installed capacity in 2012 to 105.6 GW.  Wind is expected to reach 136.5 GW by 2014 and 230 GW of installed capacity by 2020. 

Solar installations surpassed wind in 2012 with 21 GW of installations representing one quarter of 2012 global solar installations in that year.

This rapid growth of the European renewable sectors is generating rapid growth in employment in these sectors.  From 192,000 jobs in Europe's wind sector in 2009, the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)  is predicting  280,000 jobs in 2015 and 450,000 by 2020.  So quickly is the industry growing that despite the exceptionally high unemployment in many parts of Europe, the EWEA estimates that the industry will experience a skilled labour shortage of 5500 jobs/year.

Germany is a leader among European nations with about 372,000 jobs in its renewable energy sectors for the year 2011.  That's bigger than the German auto sector.  By 2020, the projections are for 400,000 to 500,000 employed in the renewable sectors.  

In parallel, Germany's nuclear sector is on the way out, a consequence of the Fukushima crisis.  Germany has shut down 8 of its nuclear plants and intends to shut down the remaining 9 by 2022.

Germany's installed wind capacity was 31.3 GW in 2012, representing 30% of the European Union total. It's installed capacity of solar energy in 2012 reached 32 GW making it the second largest solar market in the world after China.  With respect to its renewables targets for the percentage of total energy consumption by 2020 (total energy consumption including the transportation sector) , Germany has a higher target than the 20% target of the European Union.  Germany is going for 35% target and offshore wind will play a major role in pursuing this target. To this end, the German development bank, kfw will be backing offshore wind development with $7.2B (€5B) in financing.

Conclusion

The US, Europe, China and other developed nations are well-engaged in the migration to a green economy -- from supporting domestic innovation; to the construction of green technology manufacturing plants; to the development of clean energy production sites; and more generally, to the expansion of national and international markets. 

These developments continue to give rise to the creation of jobs by the thousands in most regions of the developed world - with the exception of Canada.  They also offer hope for developing countries where more than 50% of the global potential for renewable energy power production exists. 

Conversely, all the evidence indicates that the old model, the fossil fuel-based economy, no longer makes sense.  The old model not only requires massive dependencies on importing energy and the resulting exportation of ,and concentration of, energy wealth, but it is also not good for the planet.  Surely a healthy economy cannot exist in a planet that cannot sustain healthy life.

For at least the next 2 and a half years until the federal election of 2015, Canada will largely miss out on the global green economy opportunities both in terms of spreading the energy related wealth across the country and in terms of green technology market possibilities, domestic and export markets alike.  Perhaps more important, under the present circumstances, Canadian innovation capabilities cannot be adequately supported to keep pace with the rest of the world and ultimately offer Canada high-job creating manufacturing and export opportunities.

In a recent special report on renewables to the United Nations, the International Panel on Climate Change concluded that public policies, rather than the availability of the resource, are the key determinants regarding expansion or constraints to renewable energy development/deployment. In it's June 2013 report, the International Energy Agency came to similar conclusions and added that uncertainty about renewable policies may hamper investment and growth.

In other words the extent to which ,nations benefit from the high job-creating clean tech sectors while reducing emissions, is a matter of political will.  There certainly are no lack of possiblities for those who choose to be a part of the solution in light of the fact that  less than 2.5% of the globally available technical potential for renewables is currently exploited— over 97 % is untapped. 

Indeed, the technical potential of renewable energy technologies exceeds the current global energy demand by a considerable amount.  As well, the prices of clean technologies have declined considerably.

Will Dubitsky, July 10, 2013
willdubitsky@gmail.com